What does worry me...

Is the perceived level of democratic turnout in this year's primaries and caucuses (cauci??) I am not looking at the numbers compared to the Republican turnout numbers, but rather the 2004 Democrat primary turnout numbers verse this year's. Take yesterday's Wyoming caucus. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080308/us_primaries_080308/20080308?hub=CTVNewsAt11



To compare them to the Republican turnout is like looking at the TV ratings for a football game that is a complete blowout. Take a look in the stands late in the 4th quarter as a division one powerhouse gets the practice squad some reps verse Mississippi A&T.



The point is that over 8,500 turned out yesterday for the Wyoming caucus. Not even 700 turned out in 2004, and this was when George W. Bush WAS on the ballot. Not that John Kerry provided much inspiration to go out and caucus for, but he was running against a very unpopular incumbent.



In my opinion, this does not bode well for the GOP in the fall, especially if Obama wins the Democrat nomination. It seems, at least the media portrays it to be, that he has the youth vote energized as well as the black vote. Both of these groups tend to overwhelming favor Democrats, but don't actually turn out too well at the polls on election day. Does the same happen this year? Maybe, but maybe not if Obama is at the top of the ticket.



Karl Rove did a great job in 2000 and 2004 of motivating the conservative base to come out to the polls. The economic, Christian and foreign policy conservatives voted in full force, maybe even more so in 2004. It seems that the shoe may be on the other foot. The left is motivated. If Wyoming, by no means a bastion of liberal thought, turns out 12 times as many voters as the last primary they held in 2004, the turnout could be huge in November. That does not help a McCain candidacy.

What will help McCain is if Hillary get the nod. That will suppress some the this youth vote that is flocking to Obama. Also, McCain has appeal to independents. Hillary does not. Obama, for some reason, has appeal to independents. One can only hope that the Hillary/Obama feud continues to Denver (and beyond).

A question I have, is a Clinton/Obama ticket, in that order, spell trouble for the GOP? No, I don't think so, but reverse it, and that become more of a daunting task.

I hope that 2008 does not end up looking like 1996. An older, GOP senator up against an upstart, charismatic Democrat. Is John McCain the Bob Dole number two? No, I think McCain does have his "maverick" reputation (for better or worse) that helps him in a general election, but do enough of the conservative base come out for him like they did for W. Maybe, but we need more reasons to hate Obama like we do Hillary to motivate the base.

If the Democrat nomination process runs into August, will a divided Democrat party have time to come together in under 3 months? One aspect is will the McCain camp have time to be able to get traction on Obama in under 3 months? What makes Obama scary is the fact that no one really knows what he stands for; he has no record to run on. The GOP may not have enough time to expose him for what he is, the most liberal senator in 2007. This is what makes election year politics great.